Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Shield: Who's Going Down?

The Shield series finale is next week, and word on the street is that the most frenetic, intense, hardcore cop show ever made is going out in a blaze of glory. Entertainment Weekly reports that four major characters will die. So who will it be? Here's a quickie handicap of the field:

Councilman David Aceveda (10-1): At one time, I was confident Aceveda would end up dead. But now I'm not so sure. It almost seems better for him to succeed and become mayor, keeping the cycle of cynicism and corruption going. Of course, he's right in the middle of the cartel sting, and he could get caught in the crossfire while trying to prove himself to ICE. But Aceveda always manages to slip through sticky situations, and I see him getting away safely.

Det. Steve Billings (5-1): How ironic would it be for Billings to go down in the line of duty and receive a hero's sendoff? It seems his primary concern (other than beating the system) is providing for his ex-wife and daughter, and the widow's benefits would do that. Hmmm, the more I think about it, the more I'm thinking he's a dark horse candidate for the morgue.

Det. Ronnie Gardocki (3-1): Ronnie needs to run. Now. The cops have him for being Vic's bagman, and the feds have him on Vic's confession. He has zero options. I could see him whacking Shane, maybe even Mara, and then taking his own life. He might be smart enough to escape to Mexico or work a deal to rat on Vic, if there's anything left he could be tried for. But Ronnie's future isn't looking good.

Off. Tina Hanlon (20-1): She could have been killed off a few times before, and she doesn't seem particularly capable when all hell's breaking loose. But I don't think it'll be her, just because her character's been too minor and her death wouldn't resonate as much.

Det. Julian Lowe (15-1): Julian's story has fallen to the wayside over the years, but he's the moral compass of the show. Which is why I could see him falling victim in the battle against the baddies. What more poetic than the death of the one good cop? Still, I don't think the show will end entirely cynically, and I think he'll make it.

Cassidy Mackey (10-1): Vic's daughter has been in various stages of teenage meltdown all season. I could see her attempting suicide as a cry for help, only she turns out to do it right.

Corrine Mackey (50-1): No one's safe, but I think Vic's ex-wife is as safe as can be. Vic won't hurt her, and unless there's some sort of tragic accident, I think she'll emerge unscathed. Well, physically, at least.

Vic Mackey (2-1): The ending is Shakespearean for the baddest cop on the block. He's finally come clean on everything he's done and has federal blanket immunity. But he can't just walk away. Vic has sinned, and he has to pay somehow. Who'd kill him? The list of enemies is long, but I don't think Vic will go down a chump. He would have to be killed by a worthy foe -- not some cartel hitman or a random cop. It would have to be someone close, someone to complete the circle of tragedy. Ex-wife Corrine, in fear of her life? Or unstable daughter Cassidy? I could see either one popping a cap in Vic's skull in self-defense. I don't see Vic going the suicide route, but that's a slight possibility too. I'm also holding out for a small chance that Vic gets away, but loses everything he holds dear -- his family, his reputation, his future.

Off. Danni Sofer (30-1): I don't see her going down either. In fact, I see her as more of a threat to kill Vic, like Corrine, in some sort of self-defense scenario. And she's a single mom. Leaving a trail of orphans is no way to end a show. (Except for you Jackson, sorry kid.)

Mara Vendrell (3-1): Her odds increased in the last episode, when she gunned down an innocent woman. Mara was never innocent, but now she has blood on her hands. She's as desperate as Shane is, and might see suicide as the only way out. The tricky question here is her unborn baby and son Jackson. Vic's already said Jackson's too young to be a credible witness, so he's safe. But who'd take out a pregnant woman? A desperate Ronnie?

Shane Vendrell (even): Shane has to die. He killed Lem, his best friend, and so many bodies have dropped as a consequence of that. He has to go down. But by whose hand? Vic would risk his immunity by killing him now. But Ronnie would do it in a heartbeat. I don't see a random cop or gangbanger out for a bounty getting it done. For all the wrongs Shane has done, it has to be someone close to him. Maybe even himself -- Shane's becoming unwound, no place to run, no future for him or his family, and now he's hopped up on drugs. I can easily see a murder-suicide with him and Mara.

Det. "Dutch" Wagenbach (3-1): I'm getting scared for Dutchboy. He'd be at the center of any cartel/Ronnie takedown, but I think the bigger threat is the budding serial killer kid who's apparently calling him. Dutch has always had a thing for serial killers, and maybe now he's got one who's smarter than him, and who's looking to eliminate a threat. Watch your back, Dutch.

Capt. Claudette Wyms (4-1): Her health has been faltering all season. After her meltdown at the federal building, will she stroke herself out? Or can she live in a world where good cops fail and bad cops escape justice? I don't like her going the sleeping-pills route, but it's possible. I see more of a Frank Pembleton-like health breakdown.

So place your bets. My money's on Billings, Shane, Mara and Ronnie.

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